Por Mick Olsen.

El valor de las viviendas en el mercado estadounidense continúa aumentado de forma vertiginosa a lo largo de los últimos diez años y lo ha hecho aún más desde principios del 2020, hasta el punto de que en la actualidad se aprecian algunos signos de que está naciendo una nueva burbuja inmobiliaria en el país, según queda expuesto en un informe a cargo de un equipo de expertos del Banco de la Reserva Federal de Dallas (EE.UU.). Una fuerte evidencia apunta a un comportamiento anormal del mercado inmobiliario de este país. por primera vez desde el auge de principios de la década de 2000. Las razones de inquietud son claros en ciertos indicadores, en particular, la relación precio-alquiler y precio-ingreso [de la población], que muestran signos de que el costo de la vivienda en 2021 parece estar cada vez más fuera de sintonía con los fundamentos económicos.

Entre los factores que estarían inflando la nueva burbuja se enumeran las históricas bajas tasas de interés, las interrupciones en las cadenas de suministro y los programas de estímulo fiscal adoptados por el Gobierno para contrarrestar los efectos de la pandemia de covid-19, así como otras políticas asociadas con el coronavirus. En consecuencia, los precios pueden haber alcanzado un punto de exuberancia, en el que nuevos inversores entran en el mercado por temor a perder la oportunidad de conseguir un inmueble a un precio relativamente menor antes de que se encarezca más. Mientras, los inversionistas existentes recurren a una especulación más agresiva, detallan los analistas.

Se estima que las consecuencias de una corrección del sector inmobiliario no serán comparables con la crisis financiera mundial de 2007–09 en términos de magnitud o de gravedad macroeconómica. Entre otras cosas, porque los balances de las familias parecen estar en mejor forma y el endeudamiento excesivo no parece estar alimentando el auge del mercado. Asimismo, gracias a la experiencia de la burbuja inmobiliaria de principios de la década de 2000 y el posterior desarrollo y articulación de herramientas para la detección temprana de indicadores de riesgo, los bancos, legisladores y reguladores “están mejor preparados para reaccionar rápidamente y evitar las consecuencias negativas” de una corrección del mercado inmobiliario, concluye el documento.

Abril 2, 2022


15 thoughts on “¿Nueva burbuja inmobiliaria en Estados Unidos?”

  1. If the free market was in play, no way banks would make loans for less than inflation. That suggests 10% mortgages and car loans. The Fed interfered greatly by buying up mortgages and adding tons of liquidity. That’s now going away…

    • PP
    • posted on April 2, 2022

    I am fortunate to be in a position to be a cash buyer this time around (not getting burned like I did when I bought in 2006 in Los Angeles area, i.e. Countrywide Loans). I have been self employed for 30 years and I am heavily concentrating on the market. My business has seen a slight dip, but keeping my eye very closely on the economy. I am curious to see if Northeast Los Angeles starts to take a large fall in prices in the coming months. Also, my gut told me to sell my mother’s home very quickly in the bay area (escrow closed in January, 2022 and the home was sold as is) right after this happened, I have noticed bay area prices are the first to show trickles of coming down. Luckily, I have dirt cheap rent in Eagle Rock, and I have no problem waiting this out. Wanting to know your opinions of Northeast LA. One bedrooms in Eagle Rock have reached 1 million – this must be the peak. The past several years all west siders flocked to Northeast LA which also drove prices up – I sense prices will drop in this area near the fall of 2022, my gut tells me on that one.

  2. Ugh. Don’t forget, student loan payments are scheduled to resume in a few weeks. That’s gonna suck a lot of disposable income out of the system. That being said, I bet many still won’t pay their loans in the hope there’s more forgiveness.

  3. I think we’re all hoping for interest rates to increase so that a lot of us can have a chance of actually buying a house. Currently, it’s just unaffordable and there’s really nothing good out there most of the houses are very crappy.. Currently like I always have been saying there is a lot of buying still going on in Florida and prices are still insane. But I’m hoping as you say in July things will start to turn around and start going down, especially if interest rates keep going up. I wouldn’t mind paying a higher price for a nice house being that I plan on staying there for a long time but there really isn’t anything nice that I see… it’s just so overpriced…so forget it.!!!

    1. I am right there with you. I definitely could buy a home at today’s prices in this market, but I would not be happy about it.
      I got burned in the Florida housing market in 2008, so I am very skeptical, and I will rent until everything crashes.
      There’s a time to rent and a time to buy. Now is not the time to buy, and if a realtor tells you differently, that is just him /her being a sales person trying to make money on you.
      Realtors in this market are money hungry vultures with zero integrity

    • Brandy J.
    • posted on April 2, 2022

    I blame the PPP loans, not the stimulus checks. PPP loans have the highest amount of fraud the US has ever seen. Anyone with an LLC got free trump money from $100k to $4/5 mil. My husband’s uncle owns the property under an LLC and got a free $200k. He didn’t need it for anything but a hummer, Lexus, and a lakefront property in Michigan.

    1. The PPP program was the worst part of the stimulus spending because Congress apparently forgot that fraud prevention is important even during a pandemic, but the stimulus checks to individuals were problematic, too. First, they weren’t limited to people who lost their source of income because of Covid. Second, a family of five received five times the stimulus as a single person even though their living expenses probably weren’t five times higher than that of a single person. Third, the money wasn’t taxed, so recipients in a higher tax bracket got a bigger before-tax benefit than those in a lower tax bracket. Let’s not forgot the crazy idea of letting people withdraw up to $100,000 from their retirement account penalty-free. I hope those people invested that money wisely.

  4. In my area, houses that sold for $350,000 before the election now sell for $550,000. I’m glad that the Fed finally realized that we have a housing bubble. Unfortunately, they don’t realize that their QE policy was one of the primary causes. The other primary cause, in my opinion, was the excessive Covid stimulus. Both of these factors also caused most of the inflation we are experiencing.

    1. I agree with you, but the only thing I differ is is that the government / FED definitely knew what they were doing and it was intentional. They would prefer everyone be broke and reliant on them

      • zackattack
      • posted on April 2, 2022

      This is exactly what I have been saying and it seems like few would even consider it.

        • alya
        • posted on April 2, 2022

        Me too

    • Timmy-o
    • posted on April 2, 2022

    I bought a year ago with 20% down and low 2.7% 30-year fixed rate. Not a flipper so can ride out over 10 years. Rents for smaller apartments and homes are rising higher than my mortgage payment.

    1. what a great thing!! do nothing and earn money

    2. Great rate

  5. I am a mortgage underwriter, and we are definitely in a bubble. I noticed recently most people are buying at a DTI of 50% right now which is very concerning.


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