Rusia irá a la quiebra este mes. Tienen 30 días de gracia en sus préstamos, pero al final del mes estarán en mora. Estados Unidos, la UE y el Reino Unido han congelado con éxito la mayoría de sus reservas monetarias, algo que Putin no creía que pudieran hacer. Sólo pueden pagar si no es en dólares estadounidenses, euros o libras británicas. Eso no deja mucho dinero, sobre todo oro.
Esta será una experiencia extremadamente mala para los rusos, ya que no han quebrado desde 1917. No recuerdan cómo es. Será malo como 1917. Unos 200.000 rusos educados ya han huido del país, pero para el resto es hora de salir. No quieren ser la última rata en salir de un barco que se hunde.
Rusia quebró hace más de un año, en junio de 2022, cuando incumplió el pago de su deuda soberana. Sin embargo, esta pregunta ha atraído muchos comentarios nuevos que dicen lo mismo. Los ingresos rusos por petróleo y gas han bajado un 49% en el primer semestre de 2023, por lo que la Federación Rusa se quedará sin efectivo en algún momento para financiar su guerra en Ucrania.
Esto es peor que un incumplimiento soberano, ya que no tendrán dinero para operar el gobierno. No publican datos de gastos, por lo que es difícil saber cuándo. El rublo se cotiza ahora a más de 91 rublos por dólar porque nadie quiere comerciar en rublos, incluidos China e India, sus mayores clientes restantes.
Even if Russia were to be successful in achieving its goals in Ukraine, what then? Given the long term damage its done to itself, Russia has managed to define itself as the modern definition of Pyrrhic victory. — Seems Russia has managed to accelerate its conversion into a natural resource extraction colony for China.
Putin has forfeited much international economic trustworthyness and only avoids acute problems by evading sanctions and further clearing out the national wealth fund. So all in all Russia is sliding backwards while paying a colossal price for its invasion with no end in sight. This looks even more stunning when we realize that Russia had gold in their hands pre war, mainly in the form of well paying clients for raw materials from solid EU partners and functioning economic relations globally.
One possibility people overlook is Putin going full USSR Stalin mode and militarising the economy. As in – government seizes all industries, uses them almost solely for war purposes, institutes mandatory work shifts etc. He will have to start calling the war, well, the war, instead of “SMO”, but all the legal powers are still there, preserved from Soviet Union (though meant to be used to defend the country). If he does this, Russia might still have a chance to push back. But it will be truly soviet style – with gigantic losses on both sides, and miserable life for those behind the frontline. All for… I honestly don’t even know what exactly for, at this point. I just hope the military will turn on “The Tsar” like in 1917 cause otherwise, we’ll be triumphant isolationists at best, and Yugoslavia 2.0 at worst. I never was particularly lucky in my life. But this year have shown me that “the game was rigged from the star”
I knew from the start that the Ruble would collapse. It just needed more time. Just because the currency work well it doesnt mean everything will be well forever. Its just impossible for an economy cut off from most of the world to grow at a comfortable level. Let that be a lesson for everyone
Rusia crecera este año segun FMI. Y las empresas que dejaron el pais, gran mayoria de sus acciones fueron compradas por empresas grandes rusas y continuan con mismos servicios y formatos.
Moscu sigue siendo una capital de primer mundo
Prawda, że. Rosyjska gospodarka ma się dobrze. Rubel nie kłamie i jest bardzo silny w stosunku do USD i EUD. Za rok Rosja zastąpi europejskich konsumentów z Chin i Indii.
____What we have to remember is Putin was also in charge of the Russian stock market and economy and he massaged the figured to look much better than they really work. But he could only keep tat up for so long before the rest of the worlds economy realised what he was up to.___
According to the IMF, the Russian economy, as of this comment is expected to outpace Britain and Germany in 2023. The UK is contracting (what a shock) and Germany is expecting a slight downturn while Russia should expect a 0.3% growth in 2023 and 2.5% growth in 2024.
Not to forget sales to Asia is much more costly & longer in terms of shipping via unavailable tankers. Also how many knowledge workers end up dead or fighting on the Frontline because they don’t have computer database of their reservists to be selective.
While it’s frustrating to realize that the international community cannot defeat Putin outright, there’s still some sweetness in killing the bully slowly.
Le sanzioni iniziali erano solo per spettacolo. In realtà hanno fatto ben poco. L’Europa occidentale continuava ad acquistare petrolio e gas naturale russi. Ora i paesi europei si sono completamente fermati e la Russia ha perso un’importante fonte di entrate. Inoltre, come accennato nel video, ma solo brevemente, la banca centrale russa ha manipolato la propria valuta per presentarla come migliore di quanto non fosse in realtà.
No quiero sonar duro ni nada parecido, pero eso es exactamente lo que Rusia merece. No puedes esperar llevar a cabo una invasión ilegal, cometer crímenes de guerra y luego esperar que todos sean amables contigo. Con suerte, las cosas seguirán empeorando para Rusia, perderán la guerra y luego sufrirán un empeoramiento económico aún mayor debido a las reparaciones de guerra. Cosechas lo que has sembrado, ¿verdad? Me sorprende saber que todavía hay “personas no muy inteligentes” que prestan dinero a Rusia. ¿Quién haría tal cosa?
Russian army is losing, and losing catastrophically. It’s one thing to spend on a military campaign that wins you valuable territory with rich oil and mineral deposits (huge in eastern Ukraine, if you didn’t know), it’s another thing when you don’t have anything to show for it but huge military losses, bombed out Donbas and Crimean Peninsula (Russian “strongholds” at the beginning of the war), and completely demoralized army fighting with WW2 weapon stocks and ill-trained conscripts. On the bright side (for the non-Russian world that is), Russian army will be essentially defanged for decades, during which Russia will experience a significant population decrease all of which will likely lead to the breakup of the Russian Federation in the next decade. Russian nationalists will have far more to worry about from Tatars and Chechens than from Western Europeans. Yay for humanity and peace and prosperity when that happens.
I suppose Russia is not overly intrigued by sanction regimes and is working through it realistically by tightening her not too loose belt wherever required. Chips may be a dampener of sorts but they have hoarded their requirement deliberately during the build up to the current fiasco and leakages are still occurring through certain European and South American indulgences
Hay muchas cuestiones pendientes en la economía rusa que la devastarán durante las próximas décadas. Lo que yo llamaría índices cosméticos variará. Pero el país está experimentando lo que podría llamarse una industrialización inversa. Esto por sí solo garantizará la pobreza industrial para Rusia durante décadas. Cuando Putin sea destituido del poder o que Rusia pierda la guerra y de alguna manera recupere su capacidad para interactuar nuevamente con las economías occidentales; Será una fracción de su capacidad productiva de lo que alguna vez fue. Consideremos también el efecto ecuatoriano. Se necesitará mucha tranquilidad y seguridad para que las corporaciones reinviertan. Rusia no sólo ha perjudicado al pueblo ucraniano sino que también ha devastado económicamente al pueblo ruso.
If the West remains committed to supporting Ukraine’s humanitarian and military needs into 2024, Russia is in big trouble. The economic overmatch of the collective West vs Russia is incredibly lopsided (GDP $48 trillion vs $1.5 trillion), and with a price cap on Russian oil set to go into effect next month their fiscal situation is about to get even worse. They’ll be forced to decide whether to focus their shrinking revenues on their military (cutting back spending on pensions, healthcare, etc) and risk domestic backlash or underfund the war and see their occupied territories revert back to Ukrainian control even faster.
At the moment everything seems to be going as the West’s ‘game plan’ expected. Ukraine is holding out militarily (and even making gains), Europe’s population is upset at drop in living standards, inflation and worries about energy debt but most countries seem to have taken action to limit the worse effects and support for Ukraine is still at very high levels. Support seems to be wavering a bit in the USA but is still strong and calls for dropping support seem to be more about internal politics. The only concern at the moment is the new Russian strategy of trying to freeze Ukraine by destroying the electrical grid. If this can be thwarted, then the next six months should result in a total Russian defeat.
The mobilization of workers themselves. Supposedly 300,000 men were mobilized. Many of whom will have been pulled from jobs, leaving their employers in the lurch. This could bring a production line to a hault, or cause all kinds of delays, as there was no time to plan around staff leaving.
♦
Rusia irá a la quiebra este mes. Tienen 30 días de gracia en sus préstamos, pero al final del mes estarán en mora. Estados Unidos, la UE y el Reino Unido han congelado con éxito la mayoría de sus reservas monetarias, algo que Putin no creía que pudieran hacer. Sólo pueden pagar si no es en dólares estadounidenses, euros o libras británicas. Eso no deja mucho dinero, sobre todo oro.
Rusia quebró hace más de un año, en junio de 2022, cuando incumplió el pago de su deuda soberana. Sin embargo, esta pregunta ha atraído muchos comentarios nuevos que dicen lo mismo. Los ingresos rusos por petróleo y gas han bajado un 49% en el primer semestre de 2023, por lo que la Federación Rusa se quedará sin efectivo en algún momento para financiar su guerra en Ucrania.
Esto es peor que un incumplimiento soberano, ya que no tendrán dinero para operar el gobierno. No publican datos de gastos, por lo que es difícil saber cuándo. El rublo se cotiza ahora a más de 91 rublos por dólar porque nadie quiere comerciar en rublos, incluidos China e India, sus mayores clientes restantes.
PrisioneroEnArgentina.com
Enero 2, 2024
28 thoughts on “¿Rusia está yendo a la quiebra?”
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- Anónimo
- posted on January 3, 2024
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- Gretchen Anne Thomas
- posted on January 2, 2024
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- Frank Pede
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- Gabrielle49
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- Claudio Sebastián Abregu
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- Trevor
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- Patricio
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CommentHahahaha. Pack of ignorants. Get better información.
Even if Russia were to be successful in achieving its goals in Ukraine, what then? Given the long term damage its done to itself, Russia has managed to define itself as the modern definition of Pyrrhic victory. — Seems Russia has managed to accelerate its conversion into a natural resource extraction colony for China.
Putin has forfeited much international economic trustworthyness and only avoids acute problems by evading sanctions and further clearing out the national wealth fund. So all in all Russia is sliding backwards while paying a colossal price for its invasion with no end in sight. This looks even more stunning when we realize that Russia had gold in their hands pre war, mainly in the form of well paying clients for raw materials from solid EU partners and functioning economic relations globally.
One possibility people overlook is Putin going full USSR Stalin mode and militarising the economy. As in – government seizes all industries, uses them almost solely for war purposes, institutes mandatory work shifts etc.
He will have to start calling the war, well, the war, instead of “SMO”, but all the legal powers are still there, preserved from Soviet Union (though meant to be used to defend the country). If he does this, Russia might still have a chance to push back. But it will be truly soviet style – with gigantic losses on both sides, and miserable life for those behind the frontline. All for… I honestly don’t even know what exactly for, at this point. I just hope the military will turn on “The Tsar” like in 1917 cause otherwise, we’ll be triumphant isolationists at best, and Yugoslavia 2.0 at worst. I never was particularly lucky in my life. But this year have shown me that “the game was rigged from the star”
I knew from the start that the Ruble would collapse. It just needed more time. Just because the currency work well it doesnt mean everything will be well forever. Its just impossible for an economy cut off from most of the world to grow at a comfortable level. Let that be a lesson for everyone
Rusia crecera este año segun FMI. Y las empresas que dejaron el pais, gran mayoria de sus acciones fueron compradas por empresas grandes rusas y continuan con mismos servicios y formatos.
Moscu sigue siendo una capital de primer mundo
Prawda, że. Rosyjska gospodarka ma się dobrze. Rubel nie kłamie i jest bardzo silny w stosunku do USD i EUD. Za rok Rosja zastąpi europejskich konsumentów z Chin i Indii.
____What we have to remember is Putin was also in charge of the Russian stock market and economy and he massaged the figured to look much better than they really work. But he could only keep tat up for so long before the rest of the worlds economy realised what he was up to.___
I hope the economic situation changes the power in Russia somehow, instead of it just affecting the average Joe in Russia.
The taxpayers always pay the cost
According to the IMF, the Russian economy, as of this comment is expected to outpace Britain and Germany in 2023. The UK is contracting (what a shock) and Germany is expecting a slight downturn while Russia should expect a 0.3% growth in 2023 and 2.5% growth in 2024.
Russian fossil fuels exports have decreased to Europe but how have they faired overall ie have they found other markets
Not to forget sales to Asia is much more costly & longer in terms of shipping via unavailable tankers. Also how many knowledge workers end up dead or fighting on the Frontline because they don’t have computer database of their reservists to be selective.
While it’s frustrating to realize that the international community cannot defeat Putin outright, there’s still some sweetness in killing the bully slowly.
Le sanzioni iniziali erano solo per spettacolo. In realtà hanno fatto ben poco. L’Europa occidentale continuava ad acquistare petrolio e gas naturale russi. Ora i paesi europei si sono completamente fermati e la Russia ha perso un’importante fonte di entrate. Inoltre, come accennato nel video, ma solo brevemente, la banca centrale russa ha manipolato la propria valuta per presentarla come migliore di quanto non fosse in realtà.
Russia’s economy is expected to grow faster than that of the U.S. in 2024, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
No quiero sonar duro ni nada parecido, pero eso es exactamente lo que Rusia merece. No puedes esperar llevar a cabo una invasión ilegal, cometer crímenes de guerra y luego esperar que todos sean amables contigo. Con suerte, las cosas seguirán empeorando para Rusia, perderán la guerra y luego sufrirán un empeoramiento económico aún mayor debido a las reparaciones de guerra. Cosechas lo que has sembrado, ¿verdad? Me sorprende saber que todavía hay “personas no muy inteligentes” que prestan dinero a Rusia. ¿Quién haría tal cosa?
Russian army is losing, and losing catastrophically. It’s one thing to spend on a military campaign that wins you valuable territory with rich oil and mineral deposits (huge in eastern Ukraine, if you didn’t know), it’s another thing when you don’t have anything to show for it but huge military losses, bombed out Donbas and Crimean Peninsula (Russian “strongholds” at the beginning of the war), and completely demoralized army fighting with WW2 weapon stocks and ill-trained conscripts. On the bright side (for the non-Russian world that is), Russian army will be essentially defanged for decades, during which Russia will experience a significant population decrease all of which will likely lead to the breakup of the Russian Federation in the next decade. Russian nationalists will have far more to worry about from Tatars and Chechens than from Western Europeans. Yay for humanity and peace and prosperity when that happens.
I suppose Russia is not overly intrigued by sanction regimes and is working through it realistically by tightening her not too loose belt wherever required. Chips may be a dampener of sorts but they have hoarded their requirement deliberately during the build up to the current fiasco and leakages are still occurring through certain European and South American indulgences
Hay muchas cuestiones pendientes en la economía rusa que la devastarán durante las próximas décadas. Lo que yo llamaría índices cosméticos variará. Pero el país está experimentando lo que podría llamarse una industrialización inversa. Esto por sí solo garantizará la pobreza industrial para Rusia durante décadas. Cuando Putin sea destituido del poder o que Rusia pierda la guerra y de alguna manera recupere su capacidad para interactuar nuevamente con las economías occidentales; Será una fracción de su capacidad productiva de lo que alguna vez fue. Consideremos también el efecto ecuatoriano. Se necesitará mucha tranquilidad y seguridad para que las corporaciones reinviertan. Rusia no sólo ha perjudicado al pueblo ucraniano sino que también ha devastado económicamente al pueblo ruso.
If the West remains committed to supporting Ukraine’s humanitarian and military needs into 2024, Russia is in big trouble. The economic overmatch of the collective West vs Russia is incredibly lopsided (GDP $48 trillion vs $1.5 trillion), and with a price cap on Russian oil set to go into effect next month their fiscal situation is about to get even worse. They’ll be forced to decide whether to focus their shrinking revenues on their military (cutting back spending on pensions, healthcare, etc) and risk domestic backlash or underfund the war and see their occupied territories revert back to Ukrainian control even faster.
At the moment everything seems to be going as the West’s ‘game plan’ expected. Ukraine is holding out militarily (and even making gains), Europe’s population is upset at drop in living standards, inflation and worries about energy debt but most countries seem to have taken action to limit the worse effects and support for Ukraine is still at very high levels. Support seems to be wavering a bit in the USA but is still strong and calls for dropping support seem to be more about internal politics. The only concern at the moment is the new Russian strategy of trying to freeze Ukraine by destroying the electrical grid. If this can be thwarted, then the next six months should result in a total Russian defeat.
The mobilization of workers themselves. Supposedly 300,000 men were mobilized. Many of whom will have been pulled from jobs, leaving their employers in the lurch. This could bring a production line to a hault, or cause all kinds of delays, as there was no time to plan around staff leaving.
So far they still doing it
4 how long?
Yeah, for how long???!!!
Según que diario leas. Algunos te dicen que no son solventes, otros que es el milagro ruso.
Sigan soñando que lo van a voltear a Putin y Rusia.