Grl. Br. (r) Heriberto Justo Auel
1de marzo de 2926.
“El orden mundial no puede ser impuesto; debe ser aceptado.” “Un orden internacional estable depende del equilibrio entre legitimidad y poder.” Henry Kissinger -1923/2023- 1. SIGLO XXI: TANSICIÓN GEOPOLÍTICA, RECUPERACIÓN CULTURAL Y CONTROL CIVILIZATORIO. a. La transición geopolítica. b. La recuperación cultural y civilizatoria de Occidente. c. El Atlántico Sur en la rivalidad sistémica. 1. SIGLO XXI: TRANSICIÓN GEOPOLÍTICA GLOBAL Y RECUPERACIÓN CULTURAL Y CIVILIZATORIO OCCIDENTAL. a. La transición geopolítica. Vivimos -en el amplio marco de la Política Internacional Contemporánea- la confrontación de EE.UU. y China, por la supremacía mundial. Desde una perspectiva geopolítica americana -liberal, democrática y talasocrática-se lanzó con el llamado “Pivot to Asia” -también denominado “Rebalance to Asia”- anunciado formalmente en 2011 por Barack Obama y operacionalizado por la entonces Secretaria de Estado, Hillary Clinton. Su fundamento estratégico era claro: el centro de gravedad económico y geopolítico del siglo XXI se desplazaba hacia el Indo-Pacífico, y sus objetivos estratégicos fueron: Contener o equilibrar el ascenso de China. Reforzar alianzas tradicionales -Japón, Corea del Sur, Australia-. Impulsar acuerdos comerciales -TPP-. Aumentar presencia naval en el Pacífico. Defender la “libertad de navegación” en el Mar del Sur de China. Las medidas claves de orden militar correspondientes fueron: Reorientación del 60% de la flota naval hacia el Pacífico. Rotación de Marines en Darwin -Australia-. Mayor cooperación con Filipinas y Vietnam. Presencia activa en el Mar del Sur de China. Donald Trump -en su primer turno- abandonó el TPP, pero endureció la confrontación comercial con China y Joe Biden consolidó el concepto de “Indo-Pacific Strategy”, fortaleciendo el QUAD y el AUKUS. En síntesis: el “pivot” no fue coyuntural, sino que inauguró una fase estructural de competencia estratégica con China. El actor chino -asiático, autocrático y telurocrático- lanzó su respuesta geopolítica en Sep 13 -bajo liderazgo de Xi Jinping, desde Kazajistán- la creación de la “Franja Económica de la Ruta de la Seda” como “componente terrestre” que se complementará en Oct 13 -desde Indonesia- con la “Ruta Marítima de la Seda del Siglo XXI” -como “componente marítimo”-. Ambas son conocidas hoy como “Iniciativa de la Franja y la Ruta de la Seda” -BRI- Sus objetivos son: Expandir la influencia económica y política china. Asegurar rutas energéticas y comerciales. Reducir la vulnerabilidad del “dilema de Malaca”. Internacionalizar el yuan. Proyectar poder blando, mediante financiamiento e infraestructura.
Esta maniobra geopolítica china tiene como ventaja una conducción única -asegurada en el tiempo- de Xi -su creador- y, desde una perspectiva estratégica responde constituirse en un instrumento de
consolidación del “Sueño Chino”, una respuesta al “pivot to Asia” estadounidense y una herramienta de reordenamiento del espacio euroasiático. Además, China extendió la “Belt and Road Initiative” -BRI- progresivamente, hacia Iberoamérica, desde 2017, cuando la región fue definida como “extensión natural” de la Ruta Marítima. Más de 20 países latinoamericanos han firmado memorándums de adhesión. Enfocados en energía -represas, petróleo, litio-, infraestructura portuaria, telecomunicaciones -5G- y minería estratégica. China se convirtió en el primer socio comercial de Brasil, Chile y Perú y segundo de Argentina, que firmó su incorporación a la BRI en febrero de 2022 -durante la presidencia de Alberto Fernández- en Beijing. Entre los principales instrumentos comprometidos están: financiamiento para represas en Santa Cruz, proyecto nuclear Atucha III, modernización del Belgrano Cargas y swap de monedas con el Banco Popular de China. Las implicancias económicas para Argentina -desde una perspectiva geopolítica- fueron el acceso a financiamiento alternativo, la diversificación de socios y la inserción en cadenas logísticas asiáticas. Entre los riesgos observamos: la dependencia financiera, los condicionamientos tecnológicos, las tensiones con EE.UU. y el impacto en el Atlántico Sur -por la infraestructura portuaria-. El “Pivot” estadounidense y la expansión de la “BRI” china -en Iberoamérica- no son fenómenos independientes: EEUU busca preservar su esfera histórica de influencia de seguridad hemisférica y China avanza mediante instrumentos económicos, más que militares. Iberoamérica se convierte en teatro secundario de la competencia estratégica global. b. La recuperación cultural y civilizatoria de Occidente.
A partir de la segunda mitad del siglo XX y principios del siglo XXI Occidente somatizó la superposición de tres fenómenos sociopolíticos centrales. Desde el punto de vista geopolítico la implosión del Imperio Soviético -1989/91- que provocó un proceso de inestabilidad internacional. Con la llegada de Trump al poder -2017 y 2025- se inicia otro proceso -por cierto muy distinto- con mayor enjundia en 2025, que tiene un hito -en el ámbito de la “batalla cultural”- en la reciente reunión en Washington de la “Junta para La Paz” -19 Feb 26-, cuyo lema convocante fue “El premio es la Paz”. Estuvo presente como participante, el presidente Milei. Al respecto agregamos al pie el “Abstract” de un ensayo del Grl. Armanelli, claramente descriptivo (2).
Participantes de la Reunión de la “Junta para la Paz” de 19 Feb 26
El segundo fenómeno -más abstracto, menos conocido y comentado- fue la transculturación europea -pérdida de identidad- desde 1947 hasta la fecha, a pesar de haber sido Europa el espacio fundador del Occidente Cristiano. Las fuerzas “progre-globalistas” (2) anidadas en sus entrañas son las causantes de su suicidio sociopolítico y de su progresiva ausencia en el ámbito político internacional. Muchos países europeos importantes -como Francia, España, Irlanda, Suecia y otros- no estuvieron presentes o rechazaron participar activamente en esta iniciativa por la PAZ, debido a “reservas sobre su relación con el sistema de la ONU y su enfoque político”. Las Américas -simbólicamente- han heredado el meridiano cultural occidental -otrora en Greenwich- luego de las sucesivas guerras civiles europeas, siendo la provocada entre rusos y ucranianos -aún en acto- la que pareciera precipitar a un desenlace (3). El tercer fenómeno -desde 1945- es de carácter científico-tecnológico: el pasaje progresivo y acelerado a una nueva etapa de la civilización humana: la del Conocimiento. Gran parte de nuestras dirigencias viven aún en la guerra fría -1947/91- y en la revolución industrial -cuando transitamos la etapa posindustrial-. Carecen de adaptación a su tiempo. Esta situación compleja -y escasamente conocida por nuestro electorado- invisibilizó durante años a la hipocresía del “relato” kk, al atropello a nuestras tradiciones religiosas y sociales y a la resistencia a los cambios civilizatorios, ya fueren sociales, organizacionales o tecnológicos. En síntesis, destruíamos a nuestros valores identitarios y permanentes y rechazábamos lo que cambiaba y evolucionaba aceleradamente en el campo instrumental, originado por la ciencia y la tecnología.
Perdimos así credibilidad, nos hicimos “contractivos” y “egoístas”, quedando semi-aislados en un mundo interdependiente y además perdimos el ritmo del progreso y del desarrollo. Llamativamente naturalizamos el rumbo revolucionario castrocomunista, desde 1983 hasta 2024 -excepto breves intervalos-. Dependientes del Foro de San Pablo nos asociamos al “globalismo contracultural neomarxista” y al crimen organizado narcoterrorista. Con una actitud disruptiva y desenfadada un “outsider” recurrió a las redes sociales y a la juventud abandonada y llegó -sorpresivamente- al poder. EL ELECTORADO NOS SACÓ DE DOS DÉCADAS DE UNA PSEUDO REVOLUCION CRIMINAL, PERO –A PESAR DE LAS EVIDENCIAS- GRAN PARTE DE LAS DIRIGENCIAS AUN SIGUE MIRÁNDOSE EL OMBLIGO. Lo hemos visto en el Congreso Nacional, en las últimas semanas. Esta situación se vive en el Continente Americano, con algunos matices diferenciales en cada país y ha dado lugar a la “batalla cultural”, cuya esencia es la Pacificación Social -particularmente iberoamericana- en el ámbito de una maniobra mayor en curso, para dar término a las guerras activas. Estamos viviendo una dura y acelerada transición de un régimen comunista a uno capitalista. Gran parte de la sociedad lo ignora. Por primera vez -en el último siglo- la Argentina tiene una “alianza estratégica informal” (5) con EE.UU., reteniendo “asociaciones comerciales” (6) con el resto del mundo -en particular con China y Rusia-A pesar de esta situación inédita, ocurre un hecho paradojal y llamativo: en la Argentina de hoy, aliada de los EE.UU que enfrentan actualmente en la Orinoquia a nuestro enemigo de los ́70, mientras nuestros veteranos soldados siguen siendo rehenes de una pseudo revolución fallida nuevamente expulsadas del poder, por la ciudadanía. El Nüremberg argentino lleva 40 años. Los juicios son anti-constituciones, ilegales e ilegítimos y son considerados
como un verdadero “circo”. Por haber sido citado en varios TTOOFF -como testigo de concepto- puedo asegurar que si se resolviera auditar algunos de estos innumerables casos, nos llevaríamos una
gran sorpresa, por la total inconsistencia jurídica y procesal que los caracteriza. Es muy conveniente realizar una distinción crucial -para explicar lo establecido en el título -los conceptos de Paz/Pax- que desarrollamos al pie en (1) y que, por ser el eje de la nueva geopolítica americana del presidente Trump, es imprescindible entender. Un Estado puede hablar de “Paz” mientras en realidad busca consolidar una “Pax regional”. Las grandes potencias no buscan simplemente “Paz”; buscan un orden estable bajo su influencia. Así es que la estabilidad hemisférica puede interpretarse como una forma de “Pax”. La “Paz” es un concepto jurídico-moral. La “Pax” es un concepto geopolítico-estratégico. Podemos llegar a algunas conclusiones doctrinarias referidas a las “alianzas estratégicas” (5) y a las “asociaciones comerciales” (6), en el actual posicionamiento internacional de la Argentina. La distinción entre alianza estratégica y asociación comercial no es meramente semántica: expresa dos planos distintos del poder estatal. La asociación comercial pertenece al ámbito de la prosperidad y la interdependencia. PERO: La alianza estratégica pertenece al ámbito de la seguridad y la supervivencia.
En el sistema internacional en transición -marcado por la competencia entre EE.UU y China- la conducta revisionista de Rusia y la reconfiguración del rol de la UE, los vínculos económicos tienden a adquirir dimensión estratégica. Sin embargo, ello no los convierte automáticamente en alianzas. La República Argentina no integra actualmente ninguna alianza estratégica formal. Su inserción internacional responde a una lógica de autonomía relacional, caracterizada por: diversificación de vínculos comerciales, prudencia en compromisos militares externos y bajo nivel de integración operativa en sistemas de defensa colectivos. Esta postura maximiza la libertad de maniobra en el corto plazo, pero reduce capacidad disuasiva estructural. En términos estratégicos la Argentina se encuentra en una zona intermedia: no alineada formalmente, no aislada, altamente interdependiente en lo económico, débilmente integrada en
lo militar.
El comercio genera dependencia económica y la alianza genera dependencia estratégica. El primero puede renegociarse, en cambio la segunda compromete el destino político del Estado. Para una nación con recursos naturales estratégicos, posición geográfica relevante en el Atlántico Sur y proyección antártica, la decisión entre profundizar asociaciones o avanzar hacia alianzas no es técnica, sino existencial. Toda política exterior argentina debería formularse respondiendo a tres interrogantes estratégicos: 1. ¿Incrementa esta vinculación nuestra autonomía decisional o la reduce? 2. ¿Aumenta nuestra capacidad disuasiva o nos expone a un arrastre sistémico? 3. ¿Fortalece nuestra base industrial-tecnológica o profundiza nuestra dependencia crítica? Si la respuesta dominante se inclina hacia dependencia estructural, sin incremento
proporcional de seguridad,
no se está ante una alianza estratégica, sino ante una vulnerabilidad potencial. En el siglo XXI la frontera entre economía y estrategia es porosa. Pero sigue existiendo una diferencia sustantiva: La asociación comercia intereses. Como lo expresó en su tiempo Charles de Montesquieu, “El comercio cura los prejuicios destructores”. La alianza comparte riesgos. Raymond Aron, como
síntesis del equilibrio nuclear en la Guerra Fría y la disuasión -como forma paradójica de estabilidad- decía: “La paz es imposible, la guerra improbable.”
Para la Argentina el desafío no consiste en elegir socios comerciales -lo cual es inevitable en un mundo interdependiente- sino en decidir cuándo y en qué condiciones asumir compromisos estratégicos que puedan comprometer su libertad de acción en escenarios de un conflicto
mayor.
Una alianza estratégica compromete el destino político y militar de un Estado. Una asociación comercial compromete su estructura económica, pero no su seguridad directa. Sin embargo, en el siglo XXI ambas pueden entrelazarse: La dependencia tecnológica puede volverse estratégica, el comercio puede convertirse en arma geopolítica, sanciones, “friend-shoring”, controles de exportación. Algunas asociaciones económicas evolucionan hacia alianzas estratégicas.
c. El Atlántico Sur en la rivalidad sistémica – Un espacio geopolítico clave.
El Atlántico Sur articula: El pasaje bioceánico. -Estrecho de Magallanes, Drake-. Conexión África–Sudamérica. Proyección hacia la Antártida. Recursos pesqueros e hidrocarburíferos offshore.
Históricamente fue periferia estratégica; hoy puede convertirse en espacio de retaguardia logística del Indo-Pacífico ampliado. Desde el lanzamiento del “Pivot”, Washington tiende a integrar el Atlántico Sur a una lógica de continuidad hemisférica y consecuentemente área de su Seguridad Estratégica. Sus objetivos: 1. Evitar presencia militar extra hemisférica. 2. Supervisar infraestructuras críticas -puertos, telecomunicaciones-. 3. Proteger rutas energéticas offshore. 4. Resolver la disputa de soberanía de Malvinas/Falkland Islands. China no ha desplegado poder militar formal en la región y pensamos que no lo hará, pero tiene: 1. Presencia pesquera de gran escala. 2. Inversiones portuarias. 3. Financiamiento de infraestructura. 4. Interés en minerales críticos -litio, cobre-. Su enfoque es infraestructural y logístico, no militar -al menos por ahora-. La presencia colonial extra continental británica en el Atlántico Sur es un problema para resolver más temprano que tarde. La base de Mount Pleasant -en Malvinas- constituye: Punto de control aeronaval. Plataforma OTAN en el Atlántico Sur. Nodo potencial de apoyo a operaciones antárticas. Para la Argentina este es el elemento estructural de mayor peso geopolítico y estratégico a
resolver con EEUU y -con o sin- Chile.
La proyección hacia la Antártida: este continente se rige por el “Antarctic Treaty” que congela reclamos de soberanía hasta 2048 -revisión del Protocolo de Madrid-. Las tendencias relevantes de los actores de interés serían (7): EEUU aplicaría en el Atlántico Sur el “corolario de la Doctrina Monroe” (8). China ampliaría estaciones ¿científicas?.
Argentina mantendría presencia histórica. RU sostendría superposición de reclamos y negociaría la soberanía de las Is. Malvinas con Argentina, bajo presión de EEUU. Chile se alinearía en el “Board of Peace” (9) como un primer paso a borrar la “traición” de pertenencia -1982-. El escenario post-2048 podría reabrir debates sobre: recursos minerales, pesca, control logístico, infraestructura portuaria en Tierra del Fuego. En vista de ello los actores se posicionan para negociar,
desde posiciones de poder. Probables escenarios estratégicos alternativos para Argentina: Escenario de equilibrio prudente: Argentina equilibra relaciones de “alianza” con EE.UU. y de “asociación” con China, manteniendo autonomía estratégica. Escenario de alineamiento hemisférico: prioriza vínculo con EE.UU., reduciendo margen de cooperación con China. Escenario de profundización BRI: mayor financiamiento chino en puertos patagónicos y logística antártica. Variables críticas 2026–2048: Infraestructura portuaria en Ushuaia. Control del espacio marítimo y de la pesca ilegal. Desarrollo de submarinos o vigilancia marítima. Política antártica coordinada regional. Evolución de la disputa por Malvinas. Reflexión estratégica: El Atlántico Sur dejaría de ser “espacio vacío” si deja de ser percibido como una periferia sin densidad estratégica y pasa a ser estructurado por actores con voluntad de poder, infraestructura y doctrina. Esto ocurrirá cuando confluyan cinco vectores: (1) consolidación de corredores bioceánicos que articulen el Pacífico con el Atlántico, vía Cono Sur; (2) expansión efectiva de la proyección antártica -científica, logística y eventualmente dual- desde puertos patagónicos; (3) presencia naval sostenida de potencias extra hemisféricas en apoyo a intereses pesqueros, energéticos o tecnológicos; (4) valorización del lecho marítimo -hidrocarburos offshore, minerales críticos, cables submarinos y rutas de datos- y (5) definición política de un interés marítimo nacional en los Estados ribereños, especialmente la Argentina, capaz de integrar defensa, desarrollo y diplomacia. En ese punto el Atlántico Sur dejará de ser una “ausencia” en el tablero global y se convertirá en un espacio de competencia regulada -o de disputa abierta- según el equilibrio de poder que allí se configure. Se intensifica la competencia EE.UU.–China. La Antártida adquiere valor económico directo. El Ártico se vuelve plenamente navegable y reconfigura rutas globales. Para Argentina la cuestión no es sólo diplomática: es capacidad de control territorial, marítimo
y logístico propio.
El siglo XXI no es solo transición de poder, sino transición de cultura La competencia estratégica no se limita a recursos y mercados, sino que involucra legitimidad cultural, control
civilizatorio -tecnológico y dominio narrativo-.
En ese contexto, el Atlántico Sur emerge como espacio crítico de la rivalidad sistémica y como
prueba de madurez estratégica para la Argentina. “El orden mundial no puede ser impuesto; debe ser aceptado.” “Un orden internacional estable depende del equilibrio entre legitimidad y poder.”
Henry Kissinger -1923/2023-
CITAS Y ACLARACIONES: (1). La Paz: es una condición relacional que supone ausencia de guerra o violencia abierta, resolución de conflictos por medios jurídicos o políticos, reconocimiento mutuo entre las partes, cierto equilibrio aceptado. En teoría política moderna -desde Immanuel Kant hasta la diplomacia contemporánea- la paz implica: legitimidad, consentimiento, normatividad jurídica, estabilidad basada en acuerdos-. La paz puede ser negativa: ausencia de violencia o positiva: coexistencia cooperativa con justicia y reglas compartidas. Es, en esencia, un estado buscado como valor universal. (1). La Pax: es un término latino que designa una paz impuesta por una potencia dominante. El modelo clásico es la Pax Romana: no había guerra interna significativa, existía orden y estabilidad, pero el orden estaba garantizado por la hegemonía militar de Roma. Implica: asimetría de poder, orden jerárquico, disuasión o coerción, estabilidad basada en la supremacía. En la historia moderna encontramos analogías como la “Pax Britannica” o la “Pax Americana”. En estos casos la estabilidad internacional dependió de la capacidad de una potencia de imponer reglas, garantizar rutas comerciales y disuadir conflictos mayores. En términos estratégicos: La Paz es un objetivo. La Pax es un instrumento de poder. (2). O. Armanelli. “El Directorio de la Paz: ¿El fin del sueño multilateral?”. 22 Feb 26. www.ieeba.org. “Este artículo analiza el surgimiento del Board of Peace como una ruptura crítica del paradigma multilateral tradicional liderado por las Naciones Unidas. Bajo una lente de Realismo Neoclásico, se examina cómo la ineficacia del Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU ha dado paso a un modelo de minilateralismo personalista y transaccional liderado por la administración de Donald Trump. El estudio explora la implementación de una gobernanza algorítmica en la Franja de Gaza, donde la paz se gestiona como un activo geoeconómico a través de la interdependencia armada tecnológica (Farrell & Newman, 2019). Se argumenta que la integración de capitales privados, vigilancia biométrica y un Directorio Ejecutivo vitalicio redefine la soberanía estatal hacia una forma de soberanía empresarial. Finalmente, se plantea el dilema existencial para los actores europeos ante la erosión de la “paz liberal” en favor de una “paz operativa” basada en la eficacia técnica y el pragmatismo comercial, concluyendo que el Board of Peace no es solo un organismo de mediación, sino una infraestructura de poder global disruptiva”. (3). H. J. Auel. “Por tercera vez consecutiva, Milei “clavó la pica en Flandes”. 05 Feb 26. www.ieeba.org. (4). H. J. Auel. “La Hora de las Américas”. 15 Oct 25. www.ieeba.org.
(5). Alianza Estratégica: es un acuerdo formal o informal entre Estados para coordinar políticas de seguridad y defensa frente a amenazas comunes. Tiene un componente militar y político prioritario, aunque pueda incluir cooperación económica. Sus rasgos distintivos son los siguientes: percepción compartida de amenaza, compromisos de defensa mutua o asistencia militar, planificación estratégica conjunta, integración doctrinaria o interoperabilidad militar, puede incluir cláusulas automáticas de defensa. Es de naturaleza geopolítica pues se inscribe en la lógica del equilibrio de poder, tiene como horizonte la seguridad existencial del Estado, puede implicar costos elevados (autonomía limitada, obligaciones militares). En términos realistas, es una herramienta de supervivencia. (6). Asociación comercial: es un acuerdo orientado a facilitar intercambios económicos, reducir barreras arancelarias o coordinar políticas comerciales. No presupone compromisos militares ni defensa mutua. EJ.: reducción de aranceles, acuerdos regulatorios, facilitación de inversiones, cooperación logística y tecnológica, enfoque en crecimiento y competitividad. Se inscribe en la interdependencia económica, busca eficiencia, mercados y desarrollo, no obliga a intervenir militarmente ante un conflicto. En términos liberales, es una herramienta de prosperidad compartida. (7). Estas políticas dependen -en gran parte- del éxito o fracaso de Trump/Rubio en las operaciones estratégicas iniciadas en Gaza, el Caribe e Irán y sería un tema insoslayable en la Cumbre prevista entre el 31 Mar/02 Abr 26 -viaje oficial que hará Trump a China para reunirse con Xi Jinping-. (8) Corolario Trump de la Doctrina Monroe: El “corolario” implicaría que la presencia estratégica de potencias extra hemisféricas en Iberoamérica es una amenaza directa a la seguridad nacional estadounidense -tal el caso del Puerto peruano en Chancay-. (9) Posición chilena sobre la soberanía argentina en las Is. del Atlántico Sur: la posición oficial chilena en gobiernos recientes ha sido de apoyo a la reclamación de soberanía argentina sobre las Is. Malvinas y de fomento de negociaciones pacíficas conforme al derecho internacional. Hasta la fecha no hay anuncios formales de Kast -o de su futuro canciller- que indiquen un cambio explícito de esta política respecto de Malvinas, después de Mar 26. Posturas personales de Kast en el pasado han incluido retórica nacionalista sobre territorios limítrofes, pero no hay confirmación de que se traslade a una política específica oficial sobre las Malvinas. A horas de ganar las elecciones, Kast visitó a la Casa Rosada. ¿Estarán presentes en la toma de posesión del cargo de Kast -en la Casa de la Moneda- Marco Rubio -Sec Edo y Asesor de Seg Nac- o Pete Hegseth -Sec de Guerra- de EEUU?
PrisioneroEnArgentina.com
Debrero 26 2026
191 thoughts on “UNA GEOPOLÍTICA AMERICANA PARA LA “PAZ/PAX” DEL SIGLO XXI. (1)”
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Grl. Br. (r) Heriberto Justo Auel
1de marzo de 2926.
“El orden mundial no puede ser impuesto; debe ser aceptado.”
“Un orden internacional estable depende del equilibrio entre legitimidad y poder.”
Henry Kissinger -1923/2023-
1. SIGLO XXI: TANSICIÓN GEOPOLÍTICA, RECUPERACIÓN CULTURAL Y
CONTROL CIVILIZATORIO.
a. La transición geopolítica.
b. La recuperación cultural y civilizatoria de Occidente.
c. El Atlántico Sur en la rivalidad sistémica.
1. SIGLO XXI: TRANSICIÓN GEOPOLÍTICA GLOBAL Y RECUPERACIÓN
CULTURAL Y CIVILIZATORIO OCCIDENTAL.
a. La transición geopolítica.
Vivimos -en el amplio marco de la Política Internacional Contemporánea- la confrontación de EE.UU.
y China, por la supremacía mundial. Desde una perspectiva geopolítica americana -liberal,
democrática y talasocrática-se lanzó con el llamado “Pivot to Asia” -también denominado “Rebalance
to Asia”- anunciado formalmente en 2011 por Barack Obama y operacionalizado por la entonces
Secretaria de Estado, Hillary Clinton. Su fundamento estratégico era claro: el centro de gravedad
económico y geopolítico del siglo XXI se desplazaba hacia el Indo-Pacífico, y sus objetivos
estratégicos fueron:
Contener o equilibrar el ascenso de China.
Reforzar alianzas tradicionales -Japón, Corea del Sur, Australia-.
Impulsar acuerdos comerciales -TPP-.
Aumentar presencia naval en el Pacífico.
Defender la “libertad de navegación” en el Mar del Sur de China.
Las medidas claves de orden militar correspondientes fueron:
Reorientación del 60% de la flota naval hacia el Pacífico.
Rotación de Marines en Darwin -Australia-. Mayor cooperación con Filipinas y Vietnam.
Presencia activa en el Mar del Sur de China.
Donald Trump -en su primer turno- abandonó el TPP, pero endureció la confrontación comercial con
China y Joe Biden consolidó el concepto de “Indo-Pacific Strategy”, fortaleciendo el QUAD y el
AUKUS. En síntesis: el “pivot” no fue coyuntural, sino que inauguró una fase estructural de
competencia estratégica con China.
El actor chino -asiático, autocrático y telurocrático- lanzó su respuesta geopolítica en Sep 13 -bajo
liderazgo de Xi Jinping, desde Kazajistán- la creación de la “Franja Económica de la Ruta de la Seda”
como “componente terrestre” que se complementará en Oct 13 -desde Indonesia- con la “Ruta
Marítima de la Seda del Siglo XXI” -como “componente marítimo”-. Ambas son conocidas hoy como
“Iniciativa de la Franja y la Ruta de la Seda” -BRI- Sus objetivos son:
Expandir la influencia económica y política china.
Asegurar rutas energéticas y comerciales.
Reducir la vulnerabilidad del “dilema de Malaca”.
Internacionalizar el yuan.
Proyectar poder blando, mediante financiamiento e infraestructura.
Esta maniobra geopolítica china tiene como ventaja una conducción única -asegurada en el tiempo-
de Xi -su creador- y, desde una perspectiva estratégica responde constituirse en un instrumento de
consolidación del “Sueño Chino”, una respuesta al “pivot to Asia” estadounidense y una
herramienta de reordenamiento del espacio euroasiático. Además, China extendió la “Belt and
Road Initiative” -BRI- progresivamente, hacia Iberoamérica, desde 2017, cuando la región fue
definida como “extensión natural” de la Ruta Marítima. Más de 20 países latinoamericanos han
firmado memorándums de adhesión. Enfocados en energía -represas, petróleo, litio-, infraestructura
portuaria, telecomunicaciones -5G- y minería estratégica. China se convirtió en el primer socio
comercial de Brasil, Chile y Perú y segundo de Argentina, que firmó su incorporación a la BRI en
febrero de 2022 -durante la presidencia de Alberto Fernández- en Beijing. Entre los principales
instrumentos comprometidos están: financiamiento para represas en Santa Cruz, proyecto nuclear
Atucha III, modernización del Belgrano Cargas y swap de monedas con el Banco Popular de China.
Las implicancias económicas para Argentina -desde una perspectiva geopolítica- fueron el acceso a
financiamiento alternativo, la diversificación de socios y la inserción en cadenas logísticas asiáticas.
Entre los riesgos observamos: la dependencia financiera, los condicionamientos tecnológicos, las
tensiones con EE.UU. y el impacto en el Atlántico Sur -por la infraestructura portuaria-. El “Pivot”
estadounidense y la expansión de la “BRI” china -en Iberoamérica- no son fenómenos
independientes: EEUU busca preservar su esfera histórica de influencia de seguridad hemisférica y
China avanza mediante instrumentos económicos, más que militares.
Iberoamérica se convierte en teatro secundario de la competencia estratégica global.
b. La recuperación cultural y civilizatoria de Occidente.
A partir de la segunda mitad del siglo XX y principios del siglo XXI Occidente somatizó la
superposición de tres fenómenos sociopolíticos centrales. Desde el punto de vista geopolítico la
implosión del Imperio Soviético -1989/91- que provocó un proceso de inestabilidad internacional.
Con la llegada de Trump al poder -2017 y 2025- se inicia otro proceso -por cierto muy distinto- con
mayor enjundia en 2025, que tiene un hito -en el ámbito de la “batalla cultural”- en la reciente reunión
en Washington de la “Junta para La Paz” -19 Feb 26-, cuyo lema convocante fue “El premio es la
Paz”. Estuvo presente como participante, el presidente Milei. Al respecto agregamos al pie el
“Abstract” de un ensayo del Grl. Armanelli, claramente descriptivo (2).
Participantes de la Reunión de la “Junta para la Paz” de 19 Feb 26
El segundo fenómeno -más abstracto, menos conocido y comentado- fue la transculturación europea
-pérdida de identidad- desde 1947 hasta la fecha, a pesar de haber sido Europa el espacio fundador
del Occidente Cristiano. Las fuerzas “progre-globalistas” (2) anidadas en sus entrañas son las
causantes de su suicidio sociopolítico y de su progresiva ausencia en el ámbito político internacional.
Muchos países europeos importantes -como Francia, España, Irlanda, Suecia y otros- no estuvieron
presentes o rechazaron participar activamente en esta iniciativa por la PAZ, debido a “reservas sobre
su relación con el sistema de la ONU y su enfoque político”. Las Américas -simbólicamente- han
heredado el meridiano cultural occidental -otrora en Greenwich- luego de las sucesivas guerras
civiles europeas, siendo la provocada entre rusos y ucranianos -aún en acto- la que pareciera precipitar
a un desenlace (3).
El tercer fenómeno -desde 1945- es de carácter científico-tecnológico: el pasaje progresivo y
acelerado a una nueva etapa de la civilización humana: la del Conocimiento. Gran parte de nuestras
dirigencias viven aún en la guerra fría -1947/91- y en la revolución industrial -cuando transitamos la
etapa posindustrial-. Carecen de adaptación a su tiempo. Esta situación compleja -y escasamente
conocida por nuestro electorado- invisibilizó durante años a la hipocresía del “relato” kk, al atropello
a nuestras tradiciones religiosas y sociales y a la resistencia a los cambios civilizatorios, ya fueren
sociales, organizacionales o tecnológicos. En síntesis, destruíamos a nuestros valores identitarios y
permanentes y rechazábamos lo que cambiaba y evolucionaba aceleradamente en el campo
instrumental, originado por la ciencia y la tecnología.
Perdimos así credibilidad, nos hicimos “contractivos” y “egoístas”, quedando semi-aislados en un
mundo interdependiente y además perdimos el ritmo del progreso y del desarrollo. Llamativamente
naturalizamos el rumbo revolucionario castrocomunista, desde 1983 hasta 2024 -excepto breves
intervalos-. Dependientes del Foro de San Pablo nos asociamos al “globalismo contracultural
neomarxista” y al crimen organizado narcoterrorista. Con una actitud disruptiva y desenfadada un
“outsider” recurrió a las redes sociales y a la juventud abandonada y llegó -sorpresivamente- al poder.
EL ELECTORADO NOS SACÓ DE DOS DÉCADAS DE UNA PSEUDO REVOLUCION
CRIMINAL, PERO –A PESAR DE LAS EVIDENCIAS- GRAN PARTE DE LAS
DIRIGENCIAS AUN SIGUE MIRÁNDOSE EL OMBLIGO. Lo hemos visto en el Congreso
Nacional, en las últimas semanas. Esta situación se vive en el Continente Americano, con algunos
matices diferenciales en cada país y ha dado lugar a la “batalla cultural”, cuya esencia es la
Pacificación Social -particularmente iberoamericana- en el ámbito de una maniobra mayor en curso,
para dar término a las guerras activas.
Estamos viviendo una dura y acelerada transición de un régimen comunista a uno capitalista. Gran
parte de la sociedad lo ignora. Por primera vez -en el último siglo- la Argentina tiene una “alianza
estratégica informal” (5) con EE.UU., reteniendo “asociaciones comerciales” (6) con el resto del
mundo -en particular con China y Rusia-A pesar de esta situación inédita, ocurre un hecho paradojal
y llamativo: en la Argentina de hoy, aliada de los EE.UU que enfrentan actualmente en la Orinoquia
a nuestro enemigo de los ́70, mientras nuestros veteranos soldados siguen siendo rehenes de una
pseudo revolución fallida nuevamente expulsadas del poder, por la ciudadanía. El Nüremberg
argentino lleva 40 años. Los juicios son anti-constituciones, ilegales e ilegítimos y son considerados
como un verdadero “circo”. Por haber sido citado en varios TTOOFF -como testigo de concepto-
puedo asegurar que si se resolviera auditar algunos de estos innumerables casos, nos llevaríamos una
gran sorpresa, por la total inconsistencia jurídica y procesal que los caracteriza.
Es muy conveniente realizar una distinción crucial -para explicar lo establecido en el título -los
conceptos de Paz/Pax- que desarrollamos al pie en (1) y que, por ser el eje de la nueva geopolítica
americana del presidente Trump, es imprescindible entender. Un Estado puede hablar de “Paz”
mientras en realidad busca consolidar una “Pax regional”. Las grandes potencias no buscan
simplemente “Paz”; buscan un orden estable bajo su influencia. Así es que la estabilidad
hemisférica puede interpretarse como una forma de “Pax”.
La “Paz” es un concepto jurídico-moral. La “Pax” es un concepto geopolítico-estratégico.
Podemos llegar a algunas conclusiones doctrinarias referidas a las “alianzas estratégicas” (5) y a las
“asociaciones comerciales” (6), en el actual posicionamiento internacional de la Argentina. La
distinción entre alianza estratégica y asociación comercial no es meramente semántica: expresa dos
planos distintos del poder estatal. La asociación comercial pertenece al ámbito de la prosperidad
y la interdependencia. PERO: La alianza estratégica pertenece al ámbito de la seguridad y la
supervivencia.
En el sistema internacional en transición -marcado por la competencia entre EE.UU y China- la
conducta revisionista de Rusia y la reconfiguración del rol de la UE, los vínculos económicos tienden
a adquirir dimensión estratégica. Sin embargo, ello no los convierte automáticamente en alianzas.
La República Argentina no integra actualmente ninguna alianza estratégica formal. Su inserción
internacional responde a una lógica de autonomía relacional, caracterizada por: diversificación de
vínculos comerciales, prudencia en compromisos militares externos y bajo nivel de integración
operativa en sistemas de defensa colectivos. Esta postura maximiza la libertad de maniobra en el corto
plazo, pero reduce capacidad disuasiva estructural.
En términos estratégicos la Argentina se encuentra en una zona intermedia: no alineada
formalmente, no aislada, altamente interdependiente en lo económico, débilmente integrada en
lo militar.
El comercio genera dependencia económica y la alianza genera dependencia estratégica. El
primero puede renegociarse, en cambio la segunda compromete el destino político del Estado.
Para una nación con recursos naturales estratégicos, posición geográfica relevante en el Atlántico Sur
y proyección antártica, la decisión entre profundizar asociaciones o avanzar hacia alianzas no es
técnica, sino existencial. Toda política exterior argentina debería formularse respondiendo a tres
interrogantes estratégicos:
1. ¿Incrementa esta vinculación nuestra autonomía decisional o la reduce?
2. ¿Aumenta nuestra capacidad disuasiva o nos expone a un arrastre sistémico?
3. ¿Fortalece nuestra base industrial-tecnológica o profundiza nuestra dependencia crítica?
Si la respuesta dominante se inclina hacia dependencia estructural, sin incremento
proporcional de seguridad,
no se está ante una alianza estratégica, sino ante una vulnerabilidad potencial.
En el siglo XXI la frontera entre economía y estrategia es porosa. Pero sigue existiendo una diferencia
sustantiva: La asociación comercia intereses. Como lo expresó en su tiempo Charles de Montesquieu,
“El comercio cura los prejuicios destructores”. La alianza comparte riesgos. Raymond Aron, como
síntesis del equilibrio nuclear en la Guerra Fría y la disuasión -como forma paradójica de estabilidad-
decía: “La paz es imposible, la guerra improbable.”
Para la Argentina el desafío no consiste en elegir socios comerciales -lo cual es inevitable en un
mundo interdependiente- sino en decidir cuándo y en qué condiciones asumir compromisos
estratégicos que puedan comprometer su libertad de acción en escenarios de un conflicto
mayor.
Una alianza estratégica compromete el destino político y militar de un Estado. Una asociación
comercial compromete su estructura económica, pero no su seguridad directa. Sin embargo, en el siglo
XXI ambas pueden entrelazarse: La dependencia tecnológica puede volverse estratégica, el comercio
puede convertirse en arma geopolítica, sanciones, “friend-shoring”, controles de exportación. Algunas
asociaciones económicas evolucionan hacia alianzas estratégicas.
c. El Atlántico Sur en la rivalidad sistémica – Un
espacio geopolítico clave.
El Atlántico Sur articula:
El pasaje bioceánico. -Estrecho de Magallanes,
Drake-.
Conexión África–Sudamérica.
Proyección hacia la Antártida.
Recursos pesqueros e hidrocarburíferos offshore.
Históricamente fue periferia estratégica; hoy puede convertirse en espacio de retaguardia logística
del Indo-Pacífico ampliado. Desde el lanzamiento del “Pivot”, Washington tiende a integrar el
Atlántico Sur a una lógica de continuidad hemisférica y consecuentemente área de su Seguridad
Estratégica. Sus objetivos:
1. Evitar presencia militar extra hemisférica.
2. Supervisar infraestructuras críticas -puertos, telecomunicaciones-.
3. Proteger rutas energéticas offshore.
4. Resolver la disputa de soberanía de Malvinas/Falkland Islands.
China no ha desplegado poder militar formal en la región y pensamos que no lo hará, pero tiene:
1. Presencia pesquera de gran escala.
2. Inversiones portuarias.
3. Financiamiento de infraestructura.
4. Interés en minerales críticos -litio, cobre-.
Su enfoque es infraestructural y logístico, no militar -al menos por ahora-.
La presencia colonial extra continental británica en el Atlántico Sur es un problema para resolver
más temprano que tarde. La base de Mount Pleasant -en Malvinas- constituye:
Punto de control aeronaval.
Plataforma OTAN en el Atlántico Sur.
Nodo potencial de apoyo a operaciones antárticas.
Para la Argentina este es el elemento estructural de mayor peso geopolítico y estratégico a
resolver con EEUU y -con o sin- Chile.
La proyección hacia la Antártida: este continente se rige por el “Antarctic Treaty” que congela
reclamos de soberanía hasta 2048 -revisión del Protocolo de Madrid-. Las tendencias relevantes de los
actores de interés serían (7):
EEUU aplicaría en el Atlántico Sur el “corolario de la Doctrina Monroe” (8).
China ampliaría estaciones ¿científicas?.
Argentina mantendría presencia histórica.
RU sostendría superposición de reclamos y negociaría la soberanía de las Is. Malvinas con
Argentina, bajo presión de EEUU.
Chile se alinearía en el “Board of Peace” (9) como un primer paso a borrar la “traición” de
pertenencia -1982-.
El escenario post-2048 podría reabrir debates sobre: recursos minerales, pesca, control logístico,
infraestructura portuaria en Tierra del Fuego. En vista de ello los actores se posicionan para negociar,
desde posiciones de poder.
Probables escenarios estratégicos alternativos para Argentina:
Escenario de equilibrio prudente: Argentina equilibra relaciones de “alianza” con EE.UU. y de
“asociación” con China, manteniendo autonomía estratégica.
Escenario de alineamiento hemisférico: prioriza vínculo con EE.UU., reduciendo margen de
cooperación con China.
Escenario de profundización BRI: mayor financiamiento chino en puertos patagónicos y logística
antártica.
Variables críticas 2026–2048:
Infraestructura portuaria en Ushuaia.
Control del espacio marítimo y de la pesca ilegal.
Desarrollo de submarinos o vigilancia marítima.
Política antártica coordinada regional.
Evolución de la disputa por Malvinas.
Reflexión estratégica: El Atlántico Sur dejaría de ser “espacio vacío” si deja de ser percibido como
una periferia sin densidad estratégica y pasa a ser estructurado por actores con voluntad de poder,
infraestructura y doctrina. Esto ocurrirá cuando confluyan cinco vectores:
(1) consolidación de corredores bioceánicos que articulen el Pacífico con el Atlántico, vía Cono Sur;
(2) expansión efectiva de la proyección antártica -científica, logística y eventualmente dual- desde
puertos patagónicos;
(3) presencia naval sostenida de potencias extra hemisféricas en apoyo a intereses pesqueros,
energéticos o tecnológicos;
(4) valorización del lecho marítimo -hidrocarburos offshore, minerales críticos, cables submarinos y
rutas de datos- y
(5) definición política de un interés marítimo nacional en los Estados ribereños, especialmente la
Argentina, capaz de integrar defensa, desarrollo y diplomacia. En ese punto el Atlántico Sur dejará de
ser una “ausencia” en el tablero global y se convertirá en un espacio de competencia regulada -o de
disputa abierta- según el equilibrio de poder que allí se configure.
Se intensifica la competencia EE.UU.–China.
La Antártida adquiere valor económico directo.
El Ártico se vuelve plenamente navegable y reconfigura rutas globales.
Para Argentina la cuestión no es sólo diplomática: es capacidad de control territorial, marítimo
y logístico propio.
El siglo XXI no es solo transición de poder, sino transición de cultura La competencia
estratégica no se limita a recursos y mercados, sino que involucra legitimidad cultural, control
civilizatorio -tecnológico y dominio narrativo-.
En ese contexto, el Atlántico Sur emerge como espacio crítico de la rivalidad sistémica y como
prueba de madurez estratégica para la Argentina.
“El orden mundial no puede ser impuesto; debe ser aceptado.”
“Un orden internacional estable depende del equilibrio entre legitimidad y poder.”
Henry Kissinger -1923/2023-
CITAS Y ACLARACIONES:
(1). La Paz: es una condición relacional que supone ausencia de guerra o violencia abierta, resolución
de conflictos por medios jurídicos o políticos, reconocimiento mutuo entre las partes, cierto equilibrio
aceptado. En teoría política moderna -desde Immanuel Kant hasta la diplomacia contemporánea- la
paz implica: legitimidad, consentimiento, normatividad jurídica, estabilidad basada en acuerdos-. La
paz puede ser negativa: ausencia de violencia o positiva: coexistencia cooperativa con justicia y reglas
compartidas. Es, en esencia, un estado buscado como valor universal.
(1). La Pax: es un término latino que designa una paz impuesta por una potencia dominante. El
modelo clásico es la Pax Romana: no había guerra interna significativa, existía orden y estabilidad,
pero el orden estaba garantizado por la hegemonía militar de Roma. Implica: asimetría de poder, orden
jerárquico, disuasión o coerción, estabilidad basada en la supremacía. En la historia moderna
encontramos analogías como la “Pax Britannica” o la “Pax Americana”. En estos casos la estabilidad
internacional dependió de la capacidad de una potencia de imponer reglas, garantizar rutas comerciales
y disuadir conflictos mayores. En términos estratégicos: La Paz es un objetivo. La Pax es un
instrumento de poder.
(2). O. Armanelli. “El Directorio de la Paz: ¿El fin del sueño multilateral?”. 22 Feb 26.
www.ieeba.org.
“Este artículo analiza el surgimiento del Board of Peace como una ruptura crítica del paradigma
multilateral tradicional liderado por las Naciones Unidas. Bajo una lente de Realismo Neoclásico, se
examina cómo la ineficacia del Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU ha dado paso a un modelo de
minilateralismo personalista y transaccional liderado por la administración de Donald Trump. El
estudio explora la implementación de una gobernanza algorítmica en la Franja de Gaza, donde la paz
se gestiona como un activo geoeconómico a través de la interdependencia armada tecnológica (Farrell
& Newman, 2019). Se argumenta que la integración de capitales privados, vigilancia biométrica y un
Directorio Ejecutivo vitalicio redefine la soberanía estatal hacia una forma de soberanía empresarial.
Finalmente, se plantea el dilema existencial para los actores europeos ante la erosión de la “paz
liberal” en favor de una “paz operativa” basada en la eficacia técnica y el pragmatismo comercial,
concluyendo que el Board of Peace no es solo un organismo de mediación, sino una infraestructura
de poder global disruptiva”.
(3). H. J. Auel. “Por tercera vez consecutiva, Milei “clavó la pica en Flandes”. 05 Feb 26.
www.ieeba.org.
(4). H. J. Auel. “La Hora de las Américas”. 15 Oct 25. www.ieeba.org.
(5). Alianza Estratégica: es un acuerdo formal o informal entre Estados para coordinar políticas
de seguridad y defensa frente a amenazas comunes. Tiene un componente militar y político
prioritario, aunque pueda incluir cooperación económica. Sus rasgos distintivos son los siguientes:
percepción compartida de amenaza, compromisos de defensa mutua o asistencia militar, planificación
estratégica conjunta, integración doctrinaria o interoperabilidad militar, puede incluir cláusulas
automáticas de defensa. Es de naturaleza geopolítica pues se inscribe en la lógica del equilibrio de
poder, tiene como horizonte la seguridad existencial del Estado, puede implicar costos elevados
(autonomía limitada, obligaciones militares). En términos realistas, es una herramienta de
supervivencia.
(6). Asociación comercial: es un acuerdo orientado a facilitar intercambios económicos, reducir
barreras arancelarias o coordinar políticas comerciales. No presupone compromisos militares ni
defensa mutua. EJ.: reducción de aranceles, acuerdos regulatorios, facilitación de inversiones,
cooperación logística y tecnológica, enfoque en crecimiento y competitividad. Se inscribe en la
interdependencia económica, busca eficiencia, mercados y desarrollo, no obliga a intervenir
militarmente ante un conflicto. En términos liberales, es una herramienta de prosperidad
compartida.
(7). Estas políticas dependen -en gran parte- del éxito o fracaso de Trump/Rubio en las operaciones
estratégicas iniciadas en Gaza, el Caribe e Irán y sería un tema insoslayable en la Cumbre prevista
entre el 31 Mar/02 Abr 26 -viaje oficial que hará Trump a China para reunirse con Xi Jinping-.
(8) Corolario Trump de la Doctrina Monroe: El “corolario” implicaría que la presencia estratégica de
potencias extra hemisféricas en Iberoamérica es una amenaza directa a la seguridad nacional
estadounidense -tal el caso del Puerto peruano en Chancay-.
(9) Posición chilena sobre la soberanía argentina en las Is. del Atlántico Sur: la posición oficial chilena
en gobiernos recientes ha sido de apoyo a la reclamación de soberanía argentina sobre las Is. Malvinas
y de fomento de negociaciones pacíficas conforme al derecho internacional. Hasta la fecha no hay
anuncios formales de Kast -o de su futuro canciller- que indiquen un cambio explícito de esta política
respecto de Malvinas, después de Mar 26. Posturas personales de Kast en el pasado han incluido
retórica nacionalista sobre territorios limítrofes, pero no hay confirmación de que se traslade a una
política específica oficial sobre las Malvinas. A horas de ganar las elecciones, Kast visitó a la Casa
Rosada. ¿Estarán presentes en la toma de posesión del cargo de Kast -en la Casa de la Moneda- Marco
Rubio -Sec Edo y Asesor de Seg Nac- o Pete Hegseth -Sec de Guerra- de EEUU?
PrisioneroEnArgentina.com
Debrero 26 2026
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