“Cuanto más me despreciaran, más brutal sería mi argumento; no podrían verme venir”.
Pola Oloixarac
Lo sucedido el martes en los Estados Unidos dejó al mundo entero en estado de estupefacción pues, hasta el día anterior, todos los pronósticos nos decían que habría paridad, que se tardaría mucho en conocer los resultados definitivos, que la diferencia entre Kamala Harris y Donald Trump llevaría a la judicialización del proceso electoral, que podría haber violencia callejera, etc. Nada de eso ocurrió, los analistas de opinión volvieron a equivocarse como tantas veces y el republicano, al pintar de rojo el mapa entero, fue coronado por una auténtica avalancha de votos que permitió a su partido hacerse con la mayoría en ambas cámaras del Congreso y con la gobernación de casi todos los Estados de la Unión.
Me declaro ignominiosamente culpable por haber caído en esa trampa, engañado por las encuestas que consumí con pasión y que, a diario, informaban de las subas y bajas de ambos candidatos en cada uno de los Estados swingers, siempre con diferencias mínimas entre ellos. Mi única disculpa es que, seguramente, Trump incurrió en el mismo error, ya que agitó el fantasma de un fraude hasta último momento. Y digo esto porque, desde que compartí con mis compatriotas la sorpresa que significó la llegada de Javier Milei al poder, no hubiera debido ser así.
Nuestro Presidente interpretó con exactitud el giro copernicano que se había producido en la sociedad, y se transformó en la voz de ésta para expresar su descontento y su ira. Hasta el primer turno electoral, nadie daba una moneda por su futuro político, porque no habíamos percibido, a diferencia de él, ese profundo cambio que llevaría a la implosión de todos los partidos políticos tradicionales. En varios países europeos ese fenómeno se está replicando por el hartazgo de sus ciudadanos ante los excesos que trajeron aparejados la agenda globalista 2030, la imposición de las políticas woke, la insoportable presión gramsciana de las minorías para modificar las sociedades, siempre en sentido contrario los deseos y las arraigadas costumbres de las mayorías y destruyendo a su paso todo aquello que constituye la base de la civilización occidental, comenzando por la familia.
La poderosa victoria de Trump puso en pausa al mundo entero, y seguirá así hasta que, después de su asunción el 20 de enero, comiencen a despejarse las incógnitas acerca de la posición que adoptará en los múltiples escenarios de conflicto actuales, sean éstos bélicos, políticos o comerciales. Así, la OTAN se está preguntando si los Estados Unidos seguirán proveyendo a la defensa de Occidente frente a Rusia y los desmesurados apetitos territoriales de Vladimir Putin para recrear el imperio zarista, y seguramente Volodimir Zelensky ha perdido el sueño frente a la posibilidad de verse obligado a negociar la paz a cambio de la amputación del Dombass del territorio de Ucrania para su cesión al invasor. Y lo mismo sucede en Medio Oriente, en especial en Irán, donde los terroristas ayatollahs ven con preocupación la llegada al Salón Oval de un Trump que, si bien se inclinará por reducir el compromiso militar de los Estados Unidos en el exterior y apoyarse más en los regímenes sunitas aliados de la región, no estará dispuesto a contemplar impávido más ataques contra Israel.
En el principal escenario de confrontación, es decir aquél en que compiten China y Estados Unidos, recíprocamente principales socios comerciales, en lugar de balas (no creo que, a pesar de las permanentes provocaciones de Xi Jinping a Taiwan y a todos los países del Pacífico sur, por el momento se llegue allí a una guerra real) se usarán como proyectiles barreras arancelarias, por la propensión del nuevo Presidente norteamericano a proteger a su propia industria frente a la agresividad de los bajos precios de su competidora oriental.
En América Latina, si bien nunca ha sido una prioridad para los Estados Unidos, hoy su preocupación pasa por la fuerte penetración de China a través de leoninos préstamos para inversiones en infraestructura y de la adquisición de empresas proveedoras de materias primas, incluyendo alimentos. Con seguridad, no sólo los tiranos Nicolás Maduro, Miguel Díaz-Canel, Daniel Ortega y Luis Arce pondrán sus barbas en remojo, sino que la inquietud llegará a Brasil, ya que Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva se ha transformado en una piedra en el zapato, precisamente por su aberrante posicionamiento frente al catastrófico drama venezolano, mientras que México, Colombia y Chile están gobernados por regímenes de izquierda que, a la luz de lo que está sucediendo, aparecen como trasnochados..
Finalmente, y salvo en lo que se refiere a un eventual apoyo a nuestro país en su relación con el FMI y otros organismos multilaterales de crédito, no creo que la relación personal e ideológica de Milei con Trump redunde en ventajas especiales para nuestros productos exportables, que compiten con los propios, ni en un marcado respaldo del Tesoro norteamericano a nuestra economía, que aún es muy frágil a pesar de lo sorprendentemente exitosa que ha resultado la gestión gubernamental durante estos once meses.
Ahora, nos cabe esperar hasta el miércoles 13, cuando conoceremos el fallo de la Cámara de Casación que revisó la condena a Cristina Fernández por corrupción, y hasta el 25, cuando sabremos el resultado del ballotage en Uruguay, donde Yamandú Orsi (Frente Amplio) competirá con Alvaro Delgado (Partido Nacional), éste con probabilidades de triunfar.
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No me adelanto de hacer un pronóstico, pero creo que para los argentinos, hoy, con éste gobierno,es favorable el triunfo de Trump, aclaro que en muchas cosas no estoy de acuerdo con Milei, ejemplo de lo que digo, dice combatir el terrorismo y acá en Argentina, quienes combatieron el terrorismo, siguen presos y muriendo privados de su libertad, ojalá que Trump se interese por éstas Almas e intervenga dándole una mano,y no esperemos ayuda económica, tenemos que salir adelante sin pedir plata, porque más de 4000 mil millones de dólares se pagaron en los juicios por los mal llamados de Lesa Humanidad,y los cientos de miles de millones de dólares, que los corruptos políticos,se robaron y malversaron, perdón si me salí del tema,a muy pocos argentinos les importan los que dieron la vida por la Patria y hoy no solo son los malos de la película, sino que se mueren presos
Trump already broke his first promise: To end the war in Ukraine.
He said, even before the presidential inauguration, he will end the war in less than 24 hours.
All those tariffs the Donald wants to impose, guess who will be paying for that?
Not the government.
Not the manufacturer.
It’ll be paid by… ?
The American Public!!!!
Yes, tell him what he won, Bob…!!!
Estoy de acuerdo, por mas que Milei crea que Trump lo va a adoptar, si a USA no le conviene le va a dar una mano…para decirle…”chau, que te vaya bien…”
Probably it was a shock for the rest of the world, but it wasn’t a shock in America.
People who only watches CNN “wanted to believe” Kamala Harris had a shot.
Trump -Goering style- dropped a bunch of lies the Dems were unable to debunk.
Joe Biden stepped out way too late.
The peoples were unsatisfied with Biden and Harris was weak in order to detach from his administration.
Trump installed the new Red Scare and Harris couldn’t get a rid of her communist aura.
○
“Cuanto más me despreciaran, más brutal sería mi argumento; no podrían verme venir”.
Pola Oloixarac
Lo sucedido el martes en los Estados Unidos dejó al mundo entero en estado de estupefacción pues, hasta el día anterior, todos los pronósticos nos decían que habría paridad, que se tardaría mucho en conocer los resultados definitivos, que la diferencia entre Kamala Harris y Donald Trump llevaría a la judicialización del proceso electoral, que podría haber violencia callejera, etc. Nada de eso ocurrió, los analistas de opinión volvieron a equivocarse como tantas veces y el republicano, al pintar de rojo el mapa entero, fue coronado por una auténtica avalancha de votos que permitió a su partido hacerse con la mayoría en ambas cámaras del Congreso y con la gobernación de casi todos los Estados de la Unión.
Nuestro Presidente interpretó con exactitud el giro copernicano que se había producido en la sociedad, y se transformó en la voz de ésta para expresar su descontento y su ira. Hasta el primer turno electoral, nadie daba una moneda por su futuro político, porque no habíamos percibido, a diferencia de él, ese profundo cambio que llevaría a la implosión de todos los partidos políticos tradicionales. En varios países europeos ese fenómeno se está replicando por el hartazgo de sus ciudadanos ante los excesos que trajeron aparejados la agenda globalista 2030, la imposición de las políticas woke, la insoportable presión gramsciana de las minorías para modificar las sociedades, siempre en sentido contrario los deseos y las arraigadas costumbres de las mayorías y destruyendo a su paso todo aquello que constituye la base de la civilización occidental, comenzando por la familia.
La poderosa victoria de Trump puso en pausa al mundo entero, y seguirá así hasta que, después de su asunción el 20 de enero, comiencen a despejarse las incógnitas acerca de la posición que adoptará en los múltiples escenarios de conflicto actuales, sean éstos bélicos, políticos o comerciales. Así, la OTAN se está preguntando si los Estados Unidos seguirán proveyendo a la defensa de Occidente frente a Rusia y los desmesurados apetitos territoriales de Vladimir Putin para recrear el imperio zarista, y seguramente Volodimir Zelensky ha perdido el sueño frente a la posibilidad de verse obligado a negociar la paz a cambio de la amputación del Dombass del territorio de Ucrania para su cesión al invasor. Y lo mismo sucede en Medio Oriente, en especial en Irán, donde los terroristas ayatollahs ven con preocupación la llegada al Salón Oval de un Trump que, si bien se inclinará por reducir el compromiso militar de los Estados Unidos en el exterior y apoyarse más en los regímenes sunitas aliados de la región, no estará dispuesto a contemplar impávido más ataques contra Israel.
En el principal escenario de confrontación, es decir aquél en que compiten China y Estados Unidos, recíprocamente principales socios comerciales, en lugar de balas (no creo que, a pesar de las permanentes provocaciones de Xi Jinping a Taiwan y a todos los países del Pacífico sur, por el momento se llegue allí a una guerra real) se usarán como proyectiles barreras arancelarias, por la propensión del nuevo Presidente norteamericano a proteger a su propia industria frente a la agresividad de los bajos precios de su competidora oriental.
Finalmente, y salvo en lo que se refiere a un eventual apoyo a nuestro país en su relación con el FMI y otros organismos multilaterales de crédito, no creo que la relación personal e ideológica de Milei con Trump redunde en ventajas especiales para nuestros productos exportables, que compiten con los propios, ni en un marcado respaldo del Tesoro norteamericano a nuestra economía, que aún es muy frágil a pesar de lo sorprendentemente exitosa que ha resultado la gestión gubernamental durante estos once meses.
Ahora, nos cabe esperar hasta el miércoles 13, cuando conoceremos el fallo de la Cámara de Casación que revisó la condena a Cristina Fernández por corrupción, y hasta el 25, cuando sabremos el resultado del ballotage en Uruguay, donde Yamandú Orsi (Frente Amplio) competirá con Alvaro Delgado (Partido Nacional), éste con probabilidades de triunfar.
Enrique Guillermo Avogadro
Abogado
Tel. (+5411) ò (011) 4807 4401/02
Cel. en Argentina (+54911) o (15) 4473 4003
Cel. en Brasil (+5521) 8128 7896
E.mail: ega1@avogadro.com.ar
E.mail: ega1avogadro@gmail.com
Site: www.avogadro.com.ar
Blog: http://egavogadro.blogspot.com
Skype: ega1avogadro
Facebook: enrique guillermo avogadro
Twitter: @egavogadro
Nota 424 del Doctor Guillermo Avogadro en este portal.
PrisioneroEnArgentina.com
Noviembre 8, 2024
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La cosa con Trump es no quedarse fuera de la tranza
Si no nos alineamos con ellos, nos comen los chinos.
A Boric les estan dando para que tenga en Chile. La gente se canso del verso de la izquierda ahi.
Milei se va a reunir con Trump y con Musk ahi se van a ver las posiblidades que tengamos en el futuro.
No queda otra que desear lo mejor
MFT – Mear Fuera del Tarro o, más educadamente, Más Favorable al Trabajador, que no es lo mismo que Más Favorable a los Trabajadores.
Muchos más giros copernicanos veremos.
No me adelanto de hacer un pronóstico, pero creo que para los argentinos, hoy, con éste gobierno,es favorable el triunfo de Trump, aclaro que en muchas cosas no estoy de acuerdo con Milei, ejemplo de lo que digo, dice combatir el terrorismo y acá en Argentina, quienes combatieron el terrorismo, siguen presos y muriendo privados de su libertad, ojalá que Trump se interese por éstas Almas e intervenga dándole una mano,y no esperemos ayuda económica, tenemos que salir adelante sin pedir plata, porque más de 4000 mil millones de dólares se pagaron en los juicios por los mal llamados de Lesa Humanidad,y los cientos de miles de millones de dólares, que los corruptos políticos,se robaron y malversaron, perdón si me salí del tema,a muy pocos argentinos les importan los que dieron la vida por la Patria y hoy no solo son los malos de la película, sino que se mueren presos
Esperemos que cuando Trump le de guita a Milei no termine perdida en las mismas rutas K o los desagues de Macri
No creo que Milei sea una rata barata como los que mencionas. Todo es posible.
Trump already broke his first promise: To end the war in Ukraine.
He said, even before the presidential inauguration, he will end the war in less than 24 hours.
Actually, your thoughts were also in the campaign.
I don’t understand what you mean…
That Trump was campaigning. And that you take things literally.
Mr. Milei to Donald Trump, a few months ago.
He scored some huge points with Trump.
Do people call you “Nick Jagger“?
🙂
All those tariffs the Donald wants to impose, guess who will be paying for that?
Not the government.
Not the manufacturer.
It’ll be paid by… ?
The American Public!!!!
Yes, tell him what he won, Bob…!!!
You are right! Communism!
Estoy de acuerdo, por mas que Milei crea que Trump lo va a adoptar, si a USA no le conviene le va a dar una mano…para decirle…”chau, que te vaya bien…”
Tal cual, pero no va a poder… Deben un PBI y medio… Los Yanquis no tienen futuro sin “su patio trasero”. Y para los chinos somos un for-one-culo.
La va a tener ardua. China esta muy metida en latinoamerica.
La unica manera es quedar bajo el ala de Trump.
No.
Probably it was a shock for the rest of the world, but it wasn’t a shock in America.
People who only watches CNN “wanted to believe” Kamala Harris had a shot.
Trump -Goering style- dropped a bunch of lies the Dems were unable to debunk.
Joe Biden stepped out way too late.
The peoples were unsatisfied with Biden and Harris was weak in order to detach from his administration.
Trump installed the new Red Scare and Harris couldn’t get a rid of her communist aura.
“K” Mala Harris does not have a communist aura: SHE IS A COMMUNIST.
You are a troll…
Ha ha há. Yeah. I am.